VaR

How to update yesterday's IRP model to account for tomorrow's risk profile.

 

The process we know today as integrated resource planning (IRP) got its start back in the 1980s, when regulators first came to grips with nuclear plant cost overruns and urged utilities in effect to hedge that risk-to give equal weight to conservation, "negawatts," and demand-side management (DSM) as sources of new electric capacity.

Trading is dead. At least that’s what some analysts are saying about the electricity markets. “Trading died with Enron on Dec. 2, 2001,” says Mark Williams, an energy risk management expert at Boston University. Whether trading is really dead or not, some signs of a rebirth are beginning to emerge.

The purpose for the Committee of Chief Risk Officers (CCRO) recommendations, as stated in the introduction to their 198-page opus, is "to provide guidance on new methods and tools to establish a strong foundation for future growth in this (merchant energy) industry." But the reality is that the recommendations, almost without exception, fail to provide strong leadership in the areas of past and potential future abuse.

Have they gone too far? Have ratings agencies become overzealous in their efforts to rein in energy merchants? Many in the industry are coming to that belief after Aquila, one of the industry's most respected companies and leaders, announced it would exit the merchant energy trading sector in late July. It said it could no longer meet the credit requirements imposed by ratings agencies to maintain that business.