NERC

R.J. Rudden Associates, Inc. (RJRA) estimates U.S. nuclear plant stranded costs at $65.5 billion ($1994) if electric industry restructuring is fully implemented in 1997.

The firm's analysis relied on historic cost and performance data for each facility, and on RJRA projections of regional competitive prices for capacity and energy. RJRA said a slower restructuring would reduce the investment at risk to between $46.3 billion (year 2000) and $23.2 billion (year 2010).

Labor Day found me trudging around in one of those "big box" discount stores, looking for a sale on a new refrigerator. Out West, California lawmakers spent the holiday putting together their own discount plan (em this one promising rate cuts for the state's residential electric consumers, funded by "rate reduction bonds" backed by a state-owned bank for economic development.

Either way you cut it, the holiday proved worthy of its name.

or Power Markets?

In their article, "Curbing Market Power: The Larger the Better" (Apr. 15, 1996, p. 10), Christopher D. Seiple and Douglas M. Logan show that market-share indices can be derived from commercially available databases. The authors reference their soon-to-be-released study, U.S. Electric Utility Industry Mergers and Acquisitions, as a source for further market-power assessments.

The topic is timely. The U.S.

Probably the quickest way to get punched out in Toronto is to call Canada the 51st state. But let's face it,

the border is getting murky, like power markets.

Aren't we supposed to be importing power from Canada? Didn't the NIMBY syndrome kill off baseload generation construction, making our provincial neighbors the source of our power and raw materials? Then why are companies like Northeast Utilities suddenly seeking permission to export power to the provinces?

Forecasts Send ROEs Wide of the Mark

In a recent "Offpeak" ("Forecasting is Just That," Jan. 1, 1996, p. 54), David Foti and Clay Denton report data showing the percentage of error found in various seven-year forecasts of natural gas prices (1988-94) produced by the American Gas Association (A.G.A.), Energy Information Administration (EIA), DRI/McGraw-Hill (DRI), Gas Research Institute, and WEFA Group. These errors ranged from approximately 50 to 95 percent.

What are the essential characteristics of the system of governance that will be required for a new, North American electric industry with interconnected and interdependent transmission networks and trading areas?

Electric transmission networks are natural monopolies, as are the many independent network

control systems that coordinate the use of generators and loads and preserve system reliability.

The deregulated power market will feature large numbers of buyers and sellers. Buyers will worry that prices will rise unexpectedly above current levels; sellers will worry that prices will fall unexpectedly. Some will be interested in fixed-price forward deals that protect them from these risks.

is Never Lost

In spite of ample arithmetical examples, the basic point made by Lawrence Kolbe and William Tye in "The Cost of Capital Does Not Compensate for Stranded-Cost Risk" (May 15, 1995) is simply wrong. The authors claim that "even if the cost of capital [reflects] full knowledge of the risk of stranded costs," it will not compensate for that risk.

The North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) has completed a series of workshops on what it calls "electronic information systems" (EINs). The NERC workshops were held in response to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) "Mega-NOPR" of March 29, which contemplates opening the wholesale electric industry to competition.

Since the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) issued its electric "giga-NOPR" on transmission access, stranded investment, and Real-time Information Networks (RINs), the heat is on (em and rising. Congress is busy, too. It's working hard on telecommunications, nuclear waste, and privatization of the federal power marketing agencies, but the odds may be growing against repeal of PURPA (the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act) or PUHCA (the Public Utility Holding Company Act.