Moody's Investors Service

The New York Public Service Commission (PSC) has proposed accelerated restructuring of the electric industry in Phase II of its "competitive opportunities" proceeding (Case No. 94-E-0952). The proposal calls for wholesale competition by 1997, retail competition by 1998, separating generation from transmission and distribution, and forcing utilities to absorb a portion of their stranded investment.

Moody's Investors Service believes the proposal has generally negative credit implications for New York's investor-owned utilities.

In its annual report on the U.S. electric industry, Moody's Investors Service has concluded that the average credit rating for the industry will deteriorate from its present 'A3' level to 'Baa1' over the next two to three years.

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has imposed a $600,000 civil penalty on Public Service Electric and Gas Co. (PSE&G) for six violations at the Salem Nuclear Generating Station. PSE&G, which owns and operates 42.59 percent of the plant, responded by shutting Salem down temporarily.

"We take no issue with the concerns raised by the NRC," says Leon R. Eliason, PSE&G chief nuclear officer and president of its nuclear business.

Companies: BRAZ (Brazos Electric Cooperative); COA (City of Austin); CPL (Central Power & Light); CPS (Central Public Service); GSU (Gulf States Utilities); HLP (Houston Lighting & Power); LCRA (Lower Colorado River Authority); SPS (Southwestern Public Service); SWEP (Southwestern Electric Power); TNP (Texas New Mexico Power); TU (Texas Utilities Electric); WTU (West Texas Utilities).Assumptions: Statewide economic dispatch, where all utilities receive the market-clearing marginal energy cost for their generation (similar to studies that Moody's Investors Service has

Southwestern Public Service Co. (SPS) and Public Service Co. of Colorado (PSCC) have entered into a definitive merger agreement to form a public utility holding company that will cover one of the largest geographic areas in the nation. Size apart, the merger is unique in that SPS operates as part of ERCOT, and the two utilities are not interconnected. A new transmission line will be built to connect the two companies.

The new holding company will have combined annual revenues of $3 billion, and assets of $6 billion.

investor-owned electrics at $50 to $300 billion, depending on market-price assumptions. The most likely scenario would produce about $135 billion in stranded costs, compared to present total industry equity of about $165 billion and total assets of $570 billion.

The Long Island Power Authority (LIPA) plans to acquire the Long Island Lighting Co. (LILCO), to help reduce LILCO's high electric rates and improve Long Island's economy. To that end, LIPA has formed a public/private partnership with a private utility company that will provide extensive management services for LILCO. The utility partner has agreed to invest $100 million in the acquisition, contingent upon Gov. Pataki's approval. LIPA would create a subsidiary to acquire LILCO using tax-exempt bonds.

Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) chairman Craven Crowell says he will resist General Accounting Office (GAO) pressure to raise TVA rates. According to Crowell, a forthcoming GAO report criticizes TVA for not raising rates to reduce debt, and suggests privatization. "Everyone recognizes that TVA's debt is large, but the size of the debt is not as important as our ability to manage it," Crowell maintains, noting that a recent study by utility consulting firm Palmer Bellevue concludes that TVA can remain competitive by effectively managing the debt.

Moody's Investors Service has released a report, Moody's Outlines Risk Profile for Electric Cooperatives, which finds that the era of deregulation will lead to an average credit quality decline for generation and transmission cooperatives (G&Ts), just as it will for investor-owned utilities (IOUs) over the next five to 10 years. The report stresses that both G&Ts and distribution cooperatives face increased business and financial risks.

The question I am asked most frequently is "Who will emerge as the 'winners' and 'losers' among today's electric utility companies?" The short answer is painfully simple. The winners will offer the best prices (a.k.a., the low-cost producers). The losers will be unable to cut prices to meet the market (a.k.a., the high-cost producers).

Unfortunately, real-world answers rarely come in black and white. The electric utility industry enjoys less pricing flexibility than one might imagine.