IT

Some in California say they will pay double - once to the ISO, then again to the IOU.

What if power prices fall but the savings get eaten up by higher transmission rates? Let's say we unbundle the wires, but end up creating just another layer of costs? We pay the independent system operator (ISO) to run the grid, but the investor-owned utility (IOU) still owns the wires. It has its own costs to recover. So now we pay two bills, right?

The issue is troublesome for California's electric utilities and a quagmire for Pacific Gas & Electric Co. In a new tariff it filed on Nov.

Power plants can bid on more than one product. That's why most spark-spread studies miss the mark.

Forward energy prices can make it look easy to place a value on a power plant. Yet something is missing. Plants can sell more than one product. One price may be up while another is down. As Einstein said, a theory should be as simple as possible, but no simpler.

That is why it is worth reexamining the methods commonly used to calculate forward price curves and estimate the expected revenues and profits of generating assets.

Why not use the Web to buy and sell transmission rights at prices derived from bids and offers?

You make an offer, I accept. You deliver a product, I deliver money. This simple construct works well in just about any industry you can name. When a willing buyer and seller negotiate a contract, each achieves an outcome he considers best. Moreover, each is obliged to meet the needs of the other - reliably. No central authority sets the price or allocates supply. We depend on markets for reliable production and delivery of other essential goods; why not for electricity?

Having now passed a rule that takes very few chances, the FERC must decide what's in store for investors.

Whatever happened to the Sunshine Act - the law that tells government officials to hold their meetings in the open?

That's what all of us in the trade press wanted to know on Dec. 15, when Chairman James Hoecker kept us waiting all morning and well into the afternoon, while he and his cohorts at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission debated in secret on the ninth floor over the future of the electric utility industry.

A shakeout looms for retailers, and familiarity may be an edge.

Industry consolidation may whittle the number of electric and gas suppliers in the United Kingdom to just a handful by 2005, if the expectations of U.K. utilities are correct. Further, many predict that these mega-suppliers will include non-traditional competitors with trusted names - maybe even supermarkets or banks.

Nearly three-quarters of the respondents in a survey of 95 U.K. utilities say they expect just five or seven major power suppliers to emerge during the next five years.

A century gone by and we're still no closer to real choice in electricity.

The magazine being what it is, this column usually goes to press at least three weeks ahead of the cover date. Ordinarily I try to anticipate some upcoming event before the fact.

With this issue, however, the job gets tougher. It's more than a new year. In the popular view it's a new century. (But mathematicians know the Millennium begins in 2001.)

Did the electric grid crash on Jan. 1? Did the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission announce its new rule on regional transmission organizations on Dec.

The green power mind-set is locked in the wholesale world, clueless about what it takes to perfect real consumer products.

State PUCs

Gas Capacity Rights. The New York PSC told retail suppliers that to serve firm retail gas load they must have rights to firm, non-recallable, primary delivery point pipeline capacity for the five winter months, November through March, or else must augment secondary capacity with a standby charge payable to local distribution companies holding primary rights.

Consultant blasts national effort, says standards themselves are the problem.

Concerted efforts by utilities, retail marketers and metering companies to establish uniform business practices by implementing national electronic data interchange standards, or EDI, as part of retail competition, are being undermined by the EDI standard itself, says Doug Houseman, director at Cap Gemini Hagler Bailly.

"It is a very big, nasty, complicated monster. There are a lot of people that do not know what they are doing," he says.