Giving up today's customer to retail wheeling could help cut losses tomorrow.
Estimates of stranded investment for U.S. investor-owned electric utilities (IOUs) range from as little as $20 billion to as much as $500 billion (em more than double the shareholder equity in U.S. utilities.
Forecasts Send ROEs Wide of the Mark
In a recent "Offpeak" ("Forecasting is Just That," Jan. 1, 1996, p. 54), David Foti and Clay Denton report data showing the percentage of error found in various seven-year forecasts of natural gas prices (1988-94) produced by the American Gas Association (A.G.A.), Energy Information Administration (EIA), DRI/McGraw-Hill (DRI), Gas Research Institute, and WEFA Group. These errors ranged from approximately 50 to 95 percent.
Before the express train leaves the station, it's worth taking a look at the facts about new electric generating capacity in the United States.
Natural gas has become the primary energy source, accounting for about two-thirds of new capacity during the 1990. In contrast, market share for coal-which currently accounts for over 40 percent of all online capacity, and about 55 percent of online fossil-fuel capacity-is expected to grow only 10 to 15 percent in this decade.
a strategy helps.
Gas markets in the United States are complicated, dynamic, and evolving. They offer significant commercial opportunities for some companies, commercial hazards for others.
Many companies find it difficult to estimate the price they will receive for gas the next year, month, week, or day.
On a cold day, natural gas from storage reservoirs may supply as much to markets as gas from producing wells. The ability to store gas underground not only ensures reliable delivery during periods of heavy demand, but also allows more level production and pipeline flows throughout the year. Thus, some believe that the cost of storage should be spread over all gas delivered during a year, not just gas delivered from storage sites to end-use customers during the winter.
The American Gas Association (A.G.A.) has issued A Strategic Guide to IRP and DSM for Natural Gas Companies, prepared by Hampton Strategies, Inc. Because the evolution of IRP and DSM initiatives for electric and gas companies will be greatly affected by increased competition, the report contends, natural gas companies need to be familiar with issues and practices surrounding DSM cost recovery and profitability incentives.
demand-side management (DSM).1
With broad-based support from utilities, consumer representatives, environmentalists, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), and the California Energy Commission (CEC), some $1.8 billion has been spent since 1990 (and $
As competition in the electric industry increases, so does utility concern about the effect of demand-side management (DSM) programs on electricity prices. Because DSM programs often raise prices, several utilities have recently reduced the scope of their DSM programs or focused these programs more on customer service and less on improving energy efficiency (see sidebar). Whether all utilities should follow suit is, however, open to question. We contend that DSM programs do not always exert upward pressure on prices (em just sometimes.
Average electricity prices are expected to remain virtually unchanged through 2010, rising a scant 0.4 cents per kilowatt-hour, according to the Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) "Annual Energy Outlook 1995" (DOE/EIA-0383(95)). If the forecast holds true, the average household electric bill should increase by only $3 to $4 per month. Good news for residential consumers; more pressure for utilities. The flat forecast reflects low projections for major fuel prices, which break with previous EIA forecasts. EIA administrator Jay E.
At a November 11 conference, "Canadian-Northeast Energy Trade: New Issues and Challenges," sponsored by the New England-Canada Business Council, Commissioner Donald F. Santa, Jr.