The Future of Fuel Diversity

The fragmented electric industry structure poses an obstacle to a more stable, diverse, and secure power supply.

Daily news headlines have drawn attention to concerns about fuels, especially the rising prices of oil and natural gas. Fears of interruptions of oil exports from Iraq, Iran, Russia, and Venezuela (take your pick) roil the energy market. But coal is not exempt from bad news, as production declines reduce output from Eastern U.S.

Three ways to value nuclear power plants for buyers and sellers.

Appraisers don't make the market-they reflect it. But when the market speaks, appraisers listen. The appraiser must use judgment, experience, and common sense to correlate the final conclusion of value for a subject plant, basing the conclusion on market indicators.

Benchmarks

Where will the next development opportunities occur?

With the current surplus of generating capacity across most power markets in the United States, what are the more attractive regions for power generation development around the world? Potential near-term opportunities exist in Latin America and the countries of the former Soviet Union based on critical infrastructure needs, but Asia, driven by China's explosive growth, is expected to be the largest source of turbine orders over the next decade.

Financial players and load-serving utilities are looking for power asset deals.

Despite talk of wide bid-ask spreads in the past two tumultuous years, some 60 sales of generation assets have been announced. These sales cover more than 22 GW of capacity, valued on a cash-and-debt basis at approximately $11 billion. A wide variety of buyers and sellers have participated in the sales activity, with a pronounced entry by financial players (investment banks and private equity firms) and load-serving entities (LSEs) looking for capacity to serve their load.

Chicken Little has cornered the market on gas price doom and gloom, but the data is inconsistent on whether high gas prices are here to stay.

A near-universal consensus of alarm appears to be emerging concerning North American gas supply adequacy. The steady march upward of spot gas prices and NYMEX futures over the past year confirms this coalescence of market sentiment. Way back in June 2002, you could still buy Rocky Mountain wellhead production for about $1.25/MMBtu, although Eastern U.S. markets had already exceeded $3.00/MMBtu.

Neptune and the Northeast