The restructuring debate in the electric industry has focused on nuclear assets at risk for "stranding" under deregulation, while another issue has largely eluded public scrutiny: accumulated deferred federal income taxes (ADFITs). ADFITs represent money that utilities have received from ratepayers to cover federal tax expenses not yet actually recognized and paid.

R & D for

a Competitive Power Industry

The secret lies in gaining exclusive-use rights to protect your product or process from your competitors.

The electric utility industry is inherently a high-technology business. Those who ignore this fact for long will fall behind (em not only in using the technology, but also in contending against their higher-tech competitors.

Intense though it has been, the debate over stranded electric investment has addressed only half of the issue. What the utilities will do with the money is as important as whether they should recover anything at all.

Retail competition will accelerate the decline of utility-owned generation; utilities will rely less on their own production and more on purchased power to serve their remaining customers.

Electric utilities incur indirect financial costs when they turn to unregulated generators (NUGs) to buy power. These indirect costs can lead to lower bond ratings and undermine competitive advantage, depending upon the type of contract.

In this case we analyzed the combined effects of NUG power purchases on generating and capital costs for a representative utility (Utility A) with a relatively large amount of NUG purchased power.

Forecasts Send ROEs Wide of the Mark

In a recent "Offpeak" ("Forecasting is Just That," Jan. 1, 1996, p. 54), David Foti and Clay Denton report data showing the percentage of error found in various seven-year forecasts of natural gas prices (1988-94) produced by the American Gas Association (A.G.A.), Energy Information Administration (EIA), DRI/McGraw-Hill (DRI), Gas Research Institute, and WEFA Group. These errors ranged from approximately 50 to 95 percent.

The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) has approved a corporate reorganization plan making San Diego Gas and Electric Co. (SDG&E) a wholly-owned subsidiary of a holding company structure formed by the utility. The utility said the reorganization would provide the separation of lines of business necessary to insulate regulated utility cash flows from the volatility and risk of competitive markets.

Nowhere are the failings of traditional utility regulation more evident than on Long Island. The New York Public Service Commission (PSC) has raised rates for the Long Island Lighting Co. (LILCO) 31 percent since 1989. Rates are now over twice the national average (em the highest in the continental United States. Meanwhile, Long Island's economy has been ravaged by defense cutbacks that have erased 100,000 jobs (em a 10-percent drop in employment.

return-on-equity (ROE) analyses.