Competition, Convergence...and Cashflow?

Fortnightly Magazine - April 1 1996
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COMPETITION, CONVERGENCE ... AND CASHFLOW? THE POWER BUSINESS IN THE NEXT 20 YEARS


APRIL 01, 1996
BY VINOD K. DAR

LIKE ANY FRONTIER, THERE'S MONEY TO BE MADE (EM WITH THE RIGHT BLEND OF LIQUIDITY, CREDIT QUALITY, AND FORESIGHT.

.PPA FEW COMPANIES AND INNOVATIVE REGULATORS ARE, TODAY, BEGINNING TO EXPLORE POWER GENERATION FOR THE YEARS AHEAD. INHABITING THAT LANDSCAPE WE FIND A CONVERGENT GAS/ ELECTRIC ENERGY SYSTEM, AN EPOCHAL REORGANIZATION OF THE STRUCTURE OF THE U.S. GAS/ELECTRIC INDUSTRIES, AND IMPRESSIVELY CREATIVE AND COMPETITIVE ENERGY SUPPLY AND MERCHANT BUSINESSES (SEE FIGURE ON PAGE 33). THIS INTEGRATED GAS/

ELECTRIC ENERGY SYSTEM WILL FALL INTO FIVE SEGMENTS:

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1) A COMPETITIVE POWER SUPPLY WITH A FEW LARGE AND MANY NICHE GENERATING COMPANIES, CLEARLY LINKED TO A COMPETITIVE GAS-SUPPLY INDUSTRY

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2) A QUASI-REGULATED (LARGELY FEDERAL OVERSIGHT) REGIONAL AND NATIONAL ENERGY "NETWORK" OF BIG WIRES AND BIG PIPES

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3) AN EXTREMELY COMPETITIVE BULK-ENERGY MARKET DOMINATED BY 20 TO 30 LARGE AND 5 TO 10 ENORMOUS WHOLESALERS AND TRADERS OF MOLECULES AND ELECTRONS

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4) A REGULATED, LOCAL-ENERGY LOGISTICS INDUSTRY (WITH STATE OVERSIGHT AND MULTISTATE REGULATORY AGENCIES) OF LITTLE WIRES AND LITTLE PIPES (THERE WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT PURELY PIPE OR PURELY WIRE COMPANIES.)

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5) A COMPETITIVE ENERGY RETAIL INDUSTRY OF 10 TO 20 REGIONAL AND NATIONAL, UNREGULATED CYBERSPACE MERCHANTS THAT EACH PROVIDE THOUSANDS OF MASS-CUSTOMIZED ELECTRICITY, GAS, EFFICIENCY, ENERGY INFORMATION, AND ENERGY-RELATED CONSUMER FINANCING SERVICES TO MILLIONS OF CONSUMERS.

.PP

GENERATION: RELENTLESS ENTERPRISE

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