Electric Rates and CPI Gap

Per the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, residential electric rates nationally were up an average of 3.9 percent in August year-over-year, that is, compared with August 2023. That’s a faster increase than the overall Consumer Price Index that was up 2.5 percent year-over-year. The gap between the two was 1.4 percent.

Though the two trajectories are converging. Which is good news for utility customers.

As recently as May, residential electric rates nationally were up an average of 5.9 percent year-over-year. And the overall CPI was up 3.3 percent year-over-year. The gap between the two was 2.6 percent.

EEI Annual Meeting 2024 - June 18-20

The gap is closing in large part because of the slumping prices that powerplant owners are paying for natural gas. Again, per BLS, those prices nationally were down an average of 1 percent in August year-over-year.

Fortunately, earnings nationally on average are also increasing at a good pace. The BLS reports that average weekly earnings nationally were up an average of 3.5 percent in August year-over-year. That increase is 1 percent greater than the increase in the overall CPI of 2.5 percent and 0.4 percent less than the increase in residential electric rates of 3.9 percent.

Significant falls in the national average of residential electric rates in June and August suggest that the gap between these rates and the overall CPI will head even closer to zero in coming months.