2016 could place in fifth or sixth or seventh place. Behind 2010, 2011, 2014, 2015 for sure, possibly 2013, 2007 as well.
In the first quarter of 2016, electricity sales to residential customers were 346.8 million megawatt-hours. This was well below sales in the first quarter of 2015. And well below sales in first quarter of 2014.
Q1 2016 sales were 8.3 percent below sales in Q1 2015. And they were 10.9 percent below sales in Q1 2014.
Sales in March, the last month of the quarter, were particularly low. They were 14.4 percent below March 2015. And 12.4 percent below March 2014.
Comparisons with 2014 can be insightful. Residential sales in 2014 were the third highest in history. And the most recent year of relatively strong sales.
2014 sales were only a bit lower than in the record year of 2010, by 2.7 percent. And only a smaller bit lower than in the second highest year of 2011, by 1.1 percent.
The Energy Department's latest short-term forecast expects the remaining three quarters of 2016 will have a higher level of residential sales, than the first quarter. But not enough.
2016 overall is unlikely to show any growth from the prior two years. If the forecast is correct, 2016 will be 1.2 percent lower than 2015.
2016 could place in fifth or sixth or seventh place in terms of residential sales. Behind 2010, 2011, 2014 and 2015 for sure. And possibly behind 2013 and 2007 as well.
Clearly sales are not growing due to the greater efficiency of electrical machines, appliances and devices, and other factors like the weather,
Going forward, the revival of the housing market in the south may drive up residential sales. Nationally, new single-family house sales surged in April 2016. They were 23.8 percent above April 2015.
The south accounted for the majority of house sales, as usual, fifty-seven percent in April. New single-family houses in the south consume far more electricity than the average existing home in the U.S.
And then there's the increased proportion of new house sales that have high sales prices. The median sales price is $321 thousand and the average is $380 thousand. This suggests a bias towards larger new single-family houses that also consume far more electricity than the average existing home.
Energy sales may not be growing. But let's keep growing subscriptions to the must-read for the industry's high-energy thinkers and decision makers, Public Utilities Fortnightly.
Steve Mitnick, Editor-in-Chief, Public Utilities Fortnightly
E-mail me: mitnick@fortnightly.com
