Fortnightly Magazine - October 1 1996

Chairman Miller's prediction that consumers and not producers will set future electricity prices is correct, assuming a competitive market. His observation (em that "states that move decisively to a competitive environment and that clear their decks of the debris of electricity companies' stranded costs as quickly as possible will be the winners" (em is equally correct. But estimates of stranded investments range from $20 to $500 billion. Who will pay to clear those "decks"?

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), in a report analyzing the July power outage in

14 Western states, notes that New England is "challenged" by the shutdown of 3,000 Mw of nuclear capacity in Connecticut. The mid-Atlantic will be likewise challenged over the coming years by delay in the construction of a 765,000-volt transmission line between West Virginia and Virginia.

UtiliCorp United amended an electric-supply contract with Public Service Co. of Colorado to reduce electric costs for 78,000 electric customers by as much as $1 million a year.

The Maine Public Utilities Commission (PUC) has released for comment its Draft Plan on Electric Industry Restructuring, which would allow all retail customers to choose their generation supplier beginning in January 2000. The draft permits customers to aggregate, and does not require reciprocity based on retail access in other states or Canada.

Investor-owned utilities (IOUs) would have to structurally separate generation by January 2000, and divest all generation assets by January 2006.

R.J. Rudden Associates, Inc. (RJRA) estimates U.S. nuclear plant stranded costs at $65.5 billion ($1994) if electric industry restructuring is fully implemented in 1997.

The firm's analysis relied on historic cost and performance data for each facility, and on RJRA projections of regional competitive prices for capacity and energy. RJRA said a slower restructuring would reduce the investment at risk to between $46.3 billion (year 2000) and $23.2 billion (year 2010).